What Tuesday's Vote Decides
With more than 57 million ballots already cast, the midterms will settle who controls the House and Senate for the last two years of President Trump's second term.
The Washington Monument reflected in the restored Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, June 2026.Illustration by The Good Times, based on a photo by G. Edward Johnson / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 4.0)
Voters choose every House seat and about a third of the Senate, and more than 57 million Americans voted before Election Day, according to AFP and the University of Florida Election Lab as reported by CBS News. Republicans hold the Senate 53-47, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats, which would mean winning in states Trump carried in 2024. Control decides whether the president's bills pass, whether his judges and nominees are confirmed, and whether Congress opens investigations of his administration. In his last scheduled speech before the vote, at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, Trump spoke for more than 20 minutes about the pool and other Washington projects before turning to the election. He has said that if Republicans lose, "I veto everything." Decision Desk HQ, a private election-data firm, projects a 52-48 Democratic Senate but flags wide uncertainty, and the final New York Times/Siena polls show Democrats ahead in seven key Senate races, five of them inside the margin of error. Polls and forecasts are estimates, not results.
All 435 House seats and about a third of the Senate are on the ballot. Republicans hold the Senate 53-47, AFP and The Hill reported, so Democrats need four more seats for control. Democrats held final rallies in Texas, where James Talarico is their Senate nominee, and in Kansas, where Adam Hamilton is.
The chamber a party holds decides what reaches the president's desk. A Democratic House or Senate could block Trump's legislation and, in the Senate, his judges and nominees, and could open investigations of his administration. Trump has described his answer to a Congress he does not control. "If we didn't win, I veto everything," he told Miranda Devine on the New York Post's Pod Force One podcast, released the day before the vote, adding, "I guess I'll become Mr. Veto." Mediaite also reported both remarks. Overriding a veto takes two-thirds of both chambers.
Trump gave his last scheduled speech at the reopened Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. He spent more than 20 minutes on the pool and other Washington projects before his first mention of the election, AFP and CNBC reported. "This is the last day before the midterm elections, the most important midterm, I believe, in our lifetime," he said.
Decision Desk HQ projects Democrats winning the Senate 52-48, and AFP noted that the forecast leaves wide uncertainty over the chamber. The final New York Times/Siena College polls, taken Oct. 23 to Nov. 1 among likely voters, showed Democrats ahead in Michigan by 11 points, Texas by 7, Maine by 6, Kansas and Ohio by 5, Alaska by 2 and Iowa by 1. Each state sample was roughly 600 to 1,200 voters. Only the Michigan and Texas leads fell outside the margin of error, which ran from about 3 to 5 points depending on the state.
Forecasts are simulations and polls are samples of people who say they will vote. Neither counts a ballot. Whether this electorate looks like the one the pollsters drew is the question the count will answer.