World Bank Counts 496 Million Out of Poverty in India
The bank's latest brief says extreme poverty in India fell from 27.1% to 2.6% between 2011 and 2023, while youth unemployment rose and real earnings barely moved.
The World Bank says India lifted an estimated 496 million people out of poverty between 2011 and 2023. In its Poverty and Equity Brief for India, the bank says the share of Indians living on less than $4.20 a day, its line for lower-middle-income countries, fell from 57.7% to 16.1%, and the share in extreme poverty fell from 27.1% to 2.6%. The bank credits strong growth in consumption, rising employment, especially among women, and expanded social transfers including food subsidies. Employment rose by about 134 million people between 2017 and 2023, nearly twice the growth of the working-age population. The brief also lists what has not moved: youth unemployment rose from 14.6% to 15.9% over the past year, and real earnings were broadly unchanged. About 57% of India's remaining poor live in a belt of states from Uttar Pradesh to West Bengal. The bank projects the $4.20 rate falling from 14.2% this year to 12.1% by 2028.
The brief measures poverty against international lines in 2021 prices. At $4.20 a day, the share of India's population below the line fell from 57.7% in 2011 to 16.1% in 2023, which the bank estimates moved 496 million people out of poverty. Extreme poverty fell from 27.1% to 2.6%. A broader measure that counts schooling, health and living conditions, the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative's index, fell from 53.8% in 2005-06 to 16.4% in 2019-21, and the World Bank's own version stood at 15.5% in 2022-23.
The bank names three drivers: strong consumption growth, more people working, especially women, and expanded social transfers including food subsidies. Employment grew by about 134 million between 2017 and 2023, nearly twice the growth of the working-age population, with much of the gain from rural women entering paid work.
Most of the new jobs are in relatively low-productivity work, and real earnings were broadly unchanged. Youth unemployment rose from 14.6% to 15.9% between the first quarters of the last two fiscal years, mostly among young rural women. About 57% of the remaining poor live in a contiguous belt of states from Uttar Pradesh to West Bengal.
The figures are the World Bank's and rest on India's household consumption surveys. The bank cautions that some recent gains may reflect better measurement alongside genuine improvements in welfare, and it calls its projections indicative estimates based on microsimulations that will change as new labor and economic data arrive. Whether the remaining poor in those states will see the same decline is a question the brief leaves open.