Where the Senate Will Be Decided
With more than 50 million ballots already cast, control of the Senate turns on a handful of races, from Michigan to Alaska to Kansas. What the result will be read to mean is still an open question.
More than 50 million Americans have already voted ahead of the midterm elections, and control of the Senate comes down to a small set of races. President Trump closed the campaign with rallies in Dubuque, Iowa, and Salina, Kansas, a state that last elected a Democrat to the Senate in 1932 and where Democrat Adam Hamilton is running. In Michigan, Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost the Democratic primary to Abdul El-Sayed, endorsed Republican Mike Rogers. In Alaska, a federal judge threw out a Justice Department suit over a second Dan Sullivan on the ballot. A national NBC News poll of registered voters found 52% preferring a Democratic Congress and 45% a Republican one; it is one poll, not a count. Republican Sen. Tim Scott said the president's "agenda without any question is on the ballot." Whether the result will be read as a verdict on the president, on the economy or on single candidates is still open.
In Michigan, Stevens endorsed Rogers in a video. "Our Democratic nominee for Senate said I was no longer welcome in his campaign and that I should stay away," she said. "And he's right. And that's why I am endorsing Mike Rogers for the United States Senate today."
In Alaska, Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan faces Democrat Mary Peltola, with a retired Petersburg teacher, Daniel J. Sullivan, also on the ballot. Judge Sharon Gleason dismissed the Justice Department's request to set aside his ballots and hold up certification, and the department appealed the same day. Sen. Sullivan said he will accept the results.
In Kansas, Hamilton is running in a state that has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. Trump's stops in Iowa and Kansas came in states where Republicans are defending Senate seats.
Scott, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said he was confident Republicans would keep the Senate. "There's no doubt that President Trump has said himself that the midterm election is about him," he told NBC's "Meet the Press." "His agenda without any question is on the ballot." Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, who is retiring from the House, said that if Republicans suffer significant losses, "there will be a debate in the party."
The poll was conducted for NBC News by the Democratic firm Hart Research Associates and the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies. It surveyed 1,000 registered voters from October 28 to 30 by phone and online, and its margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. It found Democrats ahead 52% to 45% on which party should control Congress, up two points from NBC's previous poll. A national question measures mood across the country, not the outcome in any single state, and a poll of registered voters is not a poll of those who actually vote.
More than 50 million ballots are in before Election Day. Whether the result turns on the president, on prices or on the candidates in a handful of states remains an open question.