Israel's Exit Polls Show No Majority
Updated exit polls on Israel's three main TV channels project neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor Gadi Eisenkot's reaching the 61 seats needed to govern. Two show the blocs tied; the third puts Netanyahu's side ahead. These are projections; the official count decides.
Neither side in Israel's general election is projected to win a majority in parliament, according to exit polls on the country's three main TV channels. A government needs 61 of the Knesset's 120 seats. In their latest updates, Kan 11 and Channel 13 project 51 seats each for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc and for the bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, with 18 for the Arab-led Joint List and Ra'am. Channel 12's latest update projects 52 for Netanyahu's bloc, 49 for Eisenkot's and 19 for the Joint List and Ra'am. Eisenkot's bloc led in the first exit polls of the night; the updates moved seats toward Netanyahu's side. Channel 12 and Channel 13 project Netanyahu's Likud as the largest party, with 27 seats, ahead of Eisenkot's Yashar! with 21 or 22. Turnout was 77.7% when polls closed, according to Central Elections Committee figures. These are projections, not results. The committee's count, which includes ballots from soldiers and others counted separately, will decide the seats. Eisenkot claimed victory in a speech after midnight.
What the exit polls show
The public broadcaster Kan 11 and the commercial Channels 12 and 13 released exit polls when voting ended at 10 p.m. Israel time and updated them through the night. The first polls gave the bloc seeking to replace Netanyahu 52 seats and Netanyahu's allies 50, The Times of Israel and Ynet reported. Later updates moved seats toward Netanyahu's side, The Times of Israel and Axios reported.
The latest figures, by channel, according to The Times of Israel and Reuters:
- Kan 11: Netanyahu's bloc 51, Eisenkot's bloc 51, Joint List and Ra'am 18.
- Channel 13: Netanyahu's bloc 51, Eisenkot's bloc 51, Joint List and Ra'am 18. Likud 27 (up from 25), Yashar! 22 (down from 23).
- Channel 12 (update at 2:28 a.m. Israel time): Netanyahu's bloc 52, Eisenkot's bloc 49, Joint List and Ra'am 19. Likud 27 (from 24), Yashar! 21 (from 22), B'Yachad 12, Joint List 12 (from 11), Democrats 9 (from 10), Yisrael Beiteinu 7 (from 8), Shas 7 (from 8), Ra'am 7, and Otzma Yehudit, United Torah Judaism and Religious Zionism 6 each.
Netanyahu's bloc is made up of Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism. Eisenkot's includes Yashar!, Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad, the Democrats and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu. Exit polls are estimates from interviews at polling stations and can miss by a few seats per party.
The official count
The Central Elections Committee is posting partial results as votes are counted and has warned that figures released during the count may change, Ynet reported. Results from the first localities counted are not a representative sample. Official results must be published within eight days of the vote.
A high-turnout vote
By the 10 p.m. close, 5,695,682 people had voted, or 77.7% of those eligible, according to Central Elections Committee figures reported by Ynet and The Times of Israel. Ynet said that was about 7.1 percentage points above the same point in the 2022 election.
What the candidates said
Eisenkot, a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, claimed victory in a speech after midnight, Axios reported. He said the government he intends to form would rest on three principles: Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, military and national service for all, and the dismantling of Hamas, Axios reported.
How a government gets formed
Israel's president consults the parties and then asks a party leader to try to build a coalition. Axios noted that in Israel's parliamentary system the bloc totals, not the largest party, are what ultimately matter. If Eisenkot's bloc finishes ahead, he would have to try to swear in a minority government supported by the two Arab-led parties, and it is unclear whether all of his partners would agree, Axios reported. Reuters reported that Netanyahu's rivals have said they will not include Arab parties in their coalition. Netanyahu returned to power after the 2022 election with a 64-seat coalition, Reuters reported.